Spin Cycle: Coin Flip Election, Nebraska Dejection Highlight Week In Gambling

Welcome to “Spin Cycle,” Casino Reports’ weekly Friday roundup of all things impactful, intriguing, impressive, or idiotic in the gambling industry. Pull up a chair, grab a stack of chips and a glass of your beverage of choice, and take a spin with us through this week’s news cycle …

Post-conventional wisdom

The political conventions are over, and the betting odds say … buckle up for a close one in November.

At one offshore site that takes bets on the U.S. presidential election, where the options since before it was clear Kamala Harris would be the Democratic Party’s candidate have been “Donald Trump” or “Field (any other candidate),” as of Friday morning, Field was -111 and Trump was -109. Basically, a coin flip.

Heading into this week’s Democratic National Convention, Harris was favored and Trump was a slight plus-money underdog, but rather than Harris getting a convention bump, Trump became a small favorite based on expectations that third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would drop out and endorse the Republican. After Harris’ speech to close the convention Thursday night, she pulled back to essentially even.

At other outside-the-U.S. sportsbooks, whether regulated in the U.K. or located elsewhere and not so tightly regulated, the story is similar — basically too close to call.

The one place where Harris is seen as a favorite is on gray-market exchange wagering site PredictIt — though she’s a smaller favorite than she was a week ago. Last Friday, Harris was priced at 57 cents (equivalent to -132 odds), Trump at 46 cents (+117 odds). By this Wednesday, the gap had closed to Harris 53, Trump 50. On Friday morning, the current vice president was back up to 55 cents, and the former president was back down to 48 cents.

Bill Pascrell Jr., 1937-2024

In other political news, Bill Pascrell Jr., an elected official in the U.S. House of Representatives since January 1997, died Wednesday at age 87. Pascrell represented the major gambling state of New Jersey — though gaming-related legislation was not a substantial part of his legacy.

His more direct connection to the gambling industry is through his son, Bill Pascrell III, a lawyer and lobbyist with a heavy focus on the gaming sector. “BP3” was a big player in the lengthy campaign to see PASPA repealed and sports betting legalized across the country.

The elder Pascrell was planning to run for a 15th term in Congress this fall. It is not yet clear whether there will be a special election to fill his seat for the remainder of this term.

Nebraska goes nowhere

Last week, there was a glimmer of hope that Nebraska could legalize sports betting this year. This week, that hope was snuffed out when the legislative special session ended without the digital wagering bill moving forward.

Retail sports betting is legal in the Cornhusker State, but this effort to put mobile betting on the November ballot stalled out with the conclusion of the session on Tuesday — and was not helped by a group of 13 state senators publicly opposing it. Bills in Nebraska do not carry over from one year to the next. The next session begins Jan. 8, 2025.

This leaves Missouri, which has a sports betting measure on the ballot in November, as the lone remaining state with a chance of passing sports wagering expansion this year. If Missouri comes up short, 2024 would be the first year since PASPA was overturned in 2018 to see no new sports betting states added.

Revenue, revenue, and more revenue

From last Friday through this past Tuesday, all three major legal iGaming states reported their July numbers. Newsflash: Online casino does huge business.

In New Jersey, it brought in $195.4 million in revenue to operators in July. In Pennsylvania, iGaming produced $174.3 million in revenue. And in Michigan, adjusted gross receipts came to $172.3 million. These are all numbers that show an upward trajectory compared to July 2023.

Thanks to iGaming, total gaming revenue in each of these states is rising year over year. However, a new trend is emerging: Retail revenue is beginning to decline in these more mature iCasino states.

Here’s a fun flashback for a point of comparison on the online casino front: In the final full month prior to the pandemic shutdowns in 2020, New Jersey’s online casino revenue was a shade under $52 million, and Pennsylvania’s was $19.5 million. Michigan’s legal industry didn’t launch until January 2021.

The Shuffle: Other news and views

SWEEPING STATEMENT: Sweepstakes casinos: American Gaming Association calls for regulatory scrutiny amid market growth

ROYAL PAIN: ‘Addictive’ Royal Match game violates gambling laws, class action claims

MO’ MONEY, MO’ … MONEY: When and why the wealthy play the lottery

FRUITFUL SPIN: Record-breaking $6.45 million jackpot won on BetMGM in New Jersey

YOU SHOULDN’T BE HERE: Gaming control board fines Evolution US for unauthorized live studio access

ELECTRIC COMPANY: DraftKings now hosting peer-to-peer poker, in a limited fashion

DOLLARS AND SENSE: Sports betting & price sensitivity

COOKED BOOKS: Borgata hit with $75,000 punishment by NJ regulators for overstating promo credits

SAME APP, DIFFERENT STATE: Sports betting first: App to allow seamless wagering across 29 states

PREDATORS AND PREY: Schuetz: Real friends don’t feed your addiction

DOWN BIG: Lawsuit: Ex-Hollywood mogul lost $5 million in a day at Mohegan Sun, still owes $2.8 million

MARKET ADJUSTMENT: Expectations lower for gaming stocks the rest of 2024: analyst

COMMISSION POSSIBLE: Virginia lawmakers consider creating a unified gambling regulatory body

UNFAIR SHARE?: Timing may prove telling in expanded legal filing by spurned FanDuel shareholders

DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO: The explosion of online sports betting is taking a toll on how people invest

TEXAS TWO STEP: Casino lobbying in Texas becomes a double-edged sword for sports betting legalization

ICAHN? NO, YOU CAHN’T: Carl Icahn hit with SEC fine in wake of Caesars stock speculation

The Bonus Round

Completing the Spin Cycle with some odds and ends and our favorite social media posts of the week:

• You know it’s almost football season when the big sportsbook promos start popping up, and FanDuel has an awfully attractive one for NFL fans: The operator has its usual “Bet $5, Get $200” for new customers, but for all customers, a single $5 bet gets you a three-week free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket. That’s a pretty good value, considering Sunday Ticket costs $379 for the full season (about $21 per week). And, of course, your $5 bet is not necessarily an expenditure; it could prove profitable.

• I give my full endorsement to this take from Casino Reports contributor Steve Ruddock in his Straight to the Point newsletter:

• Ending on a personal note with a casino tie-in. On Wednesday, my son and I went to see Bruce Springsteen play at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia — my ninth Bruce show, my son’s third. The concert was phenomenal; no surprise there. Closing in on his 75th birthday, “The Boss” still has it. But you know who doesn’t have it? Some poor yutz in the marketing department at Live! Casino Hotel, which is located just across the parking lot from the stadium: