Ruddock Report: France’s Online Casino Challenges Should Look Very Familiar
Stakeholder divides leave France, like all the states in the U.S., a longshot for 2025 iCasino legalization
4 min
Our monthly look at the online gambling landscape includes the current legal and regulatory landscape, prospective online casino and online poker states, and significant trends to watch.
Although online casinos weren’t on the ballot last week, the results in several states will likely shape the fortunes of legalization efforts in the coming years.
LEGAL ONLINE CASINO ONLINE POKER-ONLY
An international incident
If you thought online casino legalization was only a hot-button issue in the U.S., think again. France, which has legalized and regulated every form of online gambling except for casino games, is running into the same issues that are plaguing U.S. states:
- Finding the appropriate tax rate
- Stakeholder disagreements on structure
- Responsible gambling and problem gambling concerns
What started as an effort to get something done in 2024 has already morphed into a multi-year effort for France, with action now unlikely until 2026.
According to Jake Pollard from the Gaming and Co. Substack newsletter, “France is set to undertake a six-month consultation to assess whether the country will regulate online casinos in 2025.”
However, as Pollard notes, 2025 is an optimistic target. The six-month consultation period, which doesn’t include subsequent debate, almost certainly pushes any legitimate effort back to 2026.
Debate is inevitable, considering the stakeholder divides that currently exist, which will be familiar to anyone paying attention to U.S. efforts:
- Representatives of the country’s casino industry want complete control of the online industry.
- The country’s horse racing and lottery industries have come out in opposition to online casino legalization.
- Current online operators want a pathway to licensure.
As I wrote in my Straight to the Point Substack newsletter on Tuesday:
CdF VP Fabrice Paire, who represents the country’s casino operators, said that an open market would be a rigged contest and that the casino industry would be making the same mistake it made in 2010 when it allowed existing unregulated operators access to sports betting and poker licenses. If the market were completely open, it would mirror the current online sports betting markets, where three brands control 80% of the market, Paire said, per Pollard’s reporting.
The candidate list
The following is taken from Straight to the Point Consulting’s The Forecast, which includes fast analysis for each state. Below is an analysis of this month’s spotlight state: Colorado.
You can contact Steve here if you’d like more information about The Forecast.
| Online Casino Candidate List | |
| Likely: 50%+ | Possible: 25-49% | Possible, but unlikely: 10-24% | Unlikely: >10% | |
| SEVEN CONTENDERS | |
| Arkansas | – STTP FORECAST: Possible, but unlikely. |
| Indiana | – STTP FORECAST: Possible, but unlikely. |
| Iowa | – STTP FORECAST: Possible, but unlikely. |
| Louisiana | – STTP FORECAST: Possible, but unlikely. |
| New Hampshire | – STTP FORECAST: Possible. |
| New York | – STTP FORECAST: Possible. |
| Wyoming | – STTP FORECAST: Possible. |
| EIGHT HOPEFULS | |
| Arizona | – STTP FORECAST: Dark horse status. |
| Colorado | – STTP FORECAST: Unlikely. |
| Illinois | – STTP FORECAST: Unlikely. |
| Kentucky | – STTP FORECAST: Unlikely. |
| Maine | – STTP FORECAST: Unlikely. |
| Massachusetts | – STTP FORECAST: Unlikely. |
| North Carolina | – STTP FORECAST: Dark horse status. |
| Ohio | An administration change is likely needed, as Ohio begrudgingly legalized sports betting, with Gov. Mike DeWine doubling the tax rate months after launch. Outgoing Sen. Niraj Antani filed a bill in September to legalize iCasino as a conversation starter, noting the state’s OSB bill took more than three years and approximately 30 bill iterations to pass. – STTP FORECAST: Unlikely. |
Candidate Spotlight: Ohio
Ohio is one of the few states that has conducted an in-depth study of online casinos. The Study Commission on the Future of Gaming in Ohio held four hearings on gambling expansion and issued a 350-page report in July that halfheartedly endorses online casinos and online lotteries. Unsurprisingly, stakeholders were split on online expansions.
Also working in its favor, Ohio is the only state with an active online casino bill, but its sponsor, outgoing state Sen. Niraj Antani, has dubbed it a conversation starter.
Barring a sudden need to fill a budget hole (the state ended FY 2024 with $1.1 billion in cash reserves despite a $485 million tax shortfall), in my estimation, Ohio is still two to three years away.
Also standing in the way is Gov. Mike DeWine, who has expressed misgivings about online sports betting:
- In January 2023, DeWine said, “The companies that are doing the massive advertising need to be aware that they are being looked at very closely by the governor and the Casino Control Commission in regard to statements that they are making.”
- Further, at DeWine’s behest, the state doubled the sports betting tax rate mere months after the industry launched.
- And then there was the state’s collegiate prop betting ban, which DeWine championed and praised after the Ohio Casino Control Commission enacted the new regulation.
I’ll end this on a positive note, as a poker-only effort has been floated: “The state could implement a limited pilot program and gauge its impact on Ohio’s market compared to neighboring states,” Rep. Bride Rose Sweeney, one of the committee members, wrote in a letter included in the report. “The state could legalize only one type of iGaming, such as online poker, to test the waters while still chipping away at the illicit market.”
Previous Spotlight States:
Trends to watch
Trend #1: Regional casino operators’ opposition to iCasino
Virginia voters overwhelmingly approved a casino in Petersburg that Cordish Companies will own and operate.
Last month’s Ruddock Report noted that Cordish’s interest in a New Hampshire casino would jeopardize that state’s efforts. And its anti-online stance will also hurt Virginia’s already slim chances of legalizing online casinos.
Considering Cordish operates or has proposed casinos in some of the best iCasino candidate states, the company’s presence is becoming an Adelson-level hurdle.
Trend #2: Creativity
Online casino legislation is stalled in the U.S. With prospects looking grim in 2025, the industry, in its never-ending quest for growth, is exploring more creative ideas to get the ball rolling, like Ohio’s poker-only approach mentioned above.
One idea that has begun to circulate comes from Bally’s Chairman Soo Kim, who proposed a moderate rollout of online casino games, starting with live dealer games, to minimize cannibalization concerns.
“Why not just live dealers? I actually think live dealer can be an interesting solution in a lot of places,” Kim told Play USA. “It’s like a half step. We don’t have to do iSlots yet because, with iSlots, there’s a lot of people fighting over it. That’s why I’m like, ‘Hey guys, instead of fighting over iSlots, why don’t we try to get live dealer?’ I bet you there will be very little resistance.”
I made a similar proposal a year ago, writing at the time that poker-only or poker plus live dealer games should be an option: “My POV: The dearth of online casino legalization is a clarion call for new ideas, and small steps forward are better than no steps forward.”
