Five Months Of Year-Over-Year Decreased Handle Point To Maturation Of New Jersey’s Sports Betting Market

While there are still a handful of states yet to report December or fourth quarter 2024 results for sports betting handle and gross gaming revenue (GGR), there’s an interesting row of red in New Jersey that may tell an important story about the state of legal U.S. sports betting.

From August through December in New Jersey, the legal sportsbooks collectively reported handle figures that represented year-over-year declines of various percentages:

• August: -3.7%
• September: -16.1%
• October: -12.5%
• November: -24.5%
• December: -5.4%

For the year, buoyed by a boisterous January 2024 plus March Madness, handle was up 6.7% for the year in the Garden State. (Data and estimates supplied by Alfonso Straffon.)

A similar trend to the one flagged in this article emerged in 2022, but that was amid the earliest phases of the launch of New York’s legal sportsbook market, before a mighty rebound in 2023. Also in 2023 and through approximately April 2024, the infamous “whale” who had brought his action to DraftKings and Fanatics sportsbooks in New Jersey was helping to lift the numbers, temporarily raising Fanatics to a nearly 25% market share in NJ at one point. 

But with that adjustment now in the past, the point is that New Jersey may now qualify as a mature market that has about reached its ceiling in the seventh football season of the post-PASPA era.

Silver State wears red, too

Meanwhile, handle figures are mostly colored green in every other jurisdiction except, of course, Nevada, which also saw YoY decreases across all four fall football months this year. 

There are various other potential forces in play, such as the emergence of “sweepstakes sportsbooks” like ProphetX, Fliff, and Novig, and for some bettors perhaps a return to offshore and pay-per-head sportsbooks, or local bookies.

However we apportion the contributing factors — let’s throw in inflation lowering discretionary income in general — signs point to high water marks for the NJ market, the most legacy state except Nevada.

Next season, barring some rapid regulatory snapback, New Jersey’s roster of legal shops and those every other state may also have to contend with Kalshi and its ilk offering quasi-sports betting event contracts on various exchanges and trading platforms, now including Robinhood. 

Indeed, growth is not infinite. (Tell the shareholders that.) And the publicly traded sportsbooks may need to do so in the next round of earnings calls … which is why you see DraftKings exploring ideas such as parlay boost subscriptions. More ideas surely to come from DraftKings, some of them heinous and others maybe with real potential.