On Eve Of Harris’ Running Mate Reveal, Odds Show Shapiro Favored, Walz Live Underdog

Having secured the Democratic nomination for president last Friday, Vice President Kamala Harris is now in the final stages of deciding her running mate. She held interviews Sunday in Washington, D.C., with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, and an announcement is expected Tuesday, followed by a rally with the potential future vice president in Philadelphia later in the day.

And the betting odds, which have fluctuated wildly over the last two weeks, have Philly-area native Shapiro as the clear favorite as of Monday morning — with Walz surging into “live ‘dog” status over the past couple of days.

At PredictIt, an exchange wagering market that exists in a legal gray area in the U.S., Shapiro was priced Monday morning at 65 cents to be the VP pick, the equivalent in standard U.S. sports betting odds of a -186 favorite. Walz was next at 25 cents (+300), followed by Kelly at 9 cents (+1011), Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear at 6 cents (+1567), and U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg at 3 cents (+3233).

Governor vs. governor

The numbers looked significantly different when PredictIt first opened the market on July 21, immediately after President Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy, opening the door for Harris to become the nominee.

In those openings odds, Shapiro was 25 cents, Beshear 20 cents, Kelly 16 cents, and Walz barely on the board at 1 cent.

From July 23-27, the Arizona astronaut Kelly was the favorite. Shapiro has otherwise led throughout, peaking on Aug. 2, when he was at 73 cents and nobody else was above 14 cents. But Walz, whose idea of gently describing Donald Trump and his running mate J.D. Vance as “weird” has caught on throughout much of the Democratic party, enjoyed a spike over the weekend to make it appear a two-horse race.

Another exchange market, Polymarket, presented very similar numbers Monday morning to PredictIt. The site rated Shapiro at 67% to win the “Veepstakes,” Walz 23%, Kelly 5%, and Beshear 4%.

In various international markets — both regulated sites in other countries and unregulated offshores sites offer betting on U.S. politics — Shapiro is also widely recognized as the favorite. At bet365, for instance, on Sunday, he was -400, followed by Walz at +550 and Beshear and Kelly both at +1000. But at one unregulated book, on Sunday afternoon the odds had closed to Shapiro -175 and Walz +175.

Looking ahead to November

It remains to be seen if Harris’ choice will provide a boost to her odds to win the presidency, but conventional wisdom suggests in the short term it’s likely to, as is the Democratic National Convention in two weeks.

Heading into her VP choice, though, she has already pulled into the position of favorite on PredictIt.

Whereas Trump was running ahead of her by a margin of 60 cents to 40 cents the day after Biden exited the race, Harris has steadily gained ground, and pulled into the lead on July 31. As of Monday morning, she was a very narrow favorite at 51 cents, compared to 50 cents for the former one-term president.

Interestingly, the party-specific market has the Dems more comfortably ahead. The leader in that market also changed on July 31, and the Democrats were at 54 cents as of Monday morning, while the GOP trailed at 49 cents. The inconsistency in the odds would appear to suggest some PredictIt investors are still not 100% convinced Harris will be the nominee.

On other sites, however, Trump still holds a lead — if a far smaller lead than he held two weeks ago. Via BetMGM in the U.K., the odds Monday saw Trump at -150 and Harris at +110, while one offshore operator that had Trump -215 and “the field” +182 on July 22 now has the Republican nominee at -123 and the field priced at +106.