Handicappers: Narrowed Focus Is A Key To Sports Betting Success

There is no shortage of options for sports bettors this time of year.

Besides Major League Baseball, all the other major men’s professional leagues are in gear. The betting board is also jammed on a nightly basis with 134 Division 1 BCS football teams and 365 Division 1 hoops squads. Then don’t forget about the futures and player props that can entice sports bettors of all types looking for action. 

All this consumer choice is exactly what bettors were hoping for with legalized markets. 

But there may also be a buyer-beware element. Bettors are operating in an inundated environment that can easily lead to information overload and requires them to make a number of decisions on where to dedicate their attention. 

There is no way the brain and wallet can process all the sports betting lines posted these days. So we talked to a number of handicappers who achieve their betting goals by specializing and not ordering everything on the menu simply because it’s available.  

Here is what they had to say about their strategies in becoming specialized handicappers. 

Finding a niche 

The journey Paul Stone made to becoming primarily a college football handicapper began in his days as a fan.  

“I came into betting like a lot of us did — I have a love of sports,” said Stone. “I was always a fan of college football. And if you do this, it can’t feel like a job all the time. It needs to be a labor of love if you’re going to spend so much time handicapping.”

Stone feels it was a natural progression to betting. He had a prior career as a sports writer and an interest in math, so he went hard into the game he knew the best. 

When it comes time for Hutton Jackson to make a bet, he scrolls past the more recognizable sports and leagues until the lacrosse menu appears. That’s where this former college player, well versed in the game, feels he has an edge over the bookmakers who treat lacrosse as even less than a secondary option on their boards. This former coordinating producer with the Action Network feels emphasizing lacrosse places him in the position of gaining a higher ROI over time than if he dabbled in a number of other sports. 

“A niche sport like lacrosse provides a great opportunity for bettors to beat the sportsbook and be a profitable bettor given the lines are softer, often drastically differ across sportsbooks, and can be slow to adjust,” said Jackson, the founder of the Pro Lacrosse Talk and Bet on Lacrosse podcasts. “You can gain an informational advantage over the sportsbooks while the sport remains niche. “

That’s similar to how Brett Hoffman started to focus primarily on golf. This New Jersey-based sports betting consultant sees more potential for profit by directing most of his resources toward golf rather than the sports he occasionally wagers on like football and hockey. 

“There’s no market with a higher upside than golf,” Hoffman said. “If you cash two outright winners in a season you should be in the green, unlike any other sport. There’s nothing quite like the Sunday sweat with your golfer in the mix on the back 9.”

As a lifelong Razorbacks fan, it made sense for the Arkansas-born Matt Grissom to turn his interest in college baseball into the foundation of his sports handicapping. That began in 2018 when he noticed the lines posted for the NCAA tournament regionals were far off from what he predicted. 

“This was my eye-opening moment,” the founder of CollegeBaseballInsiders.com recalled. “It looked like an extremely exploitable market, and I felt like, with very limited information, I could beat the books on it. My theory is that it’s much easier to bet on college athletics than on professional ones because when you have five times the number of teams to handicap in college sports, there’s no way that the books can get it right every single time.”

Timing patterns 

These handicappers all feel that narrowing down their areas of expertise allows them to properly devote the time and money toward it to find success. Micro rather than macro makes sense in theory — however, with so many options to wager on, it can be difficult to sustain.

Betting on sports is Stone’s occupation, so like any job, to be successful, it takes dedication. 

“I handicap college football 365 days a year,” said Stone, who makes some wagers during the summer with closing line value as a goal. “With the transfer portal, there’s really no offseason if you’re going to try to be profitable at this.” 

Still, as a sports fan and one always looking for an edge, Stone does handicap other sports. He estimates his time dedicated to handicapping is 60% college football, 30% college basketball, and 10% golf and other sports.

Jackson, meanwhile, said he spends about 90% of his sports-betting-focused time analyzing lacrosse matchups. The rest of the time is spent “casually” wagering on other sports.  

Hoffman strives for intense dedication on Tuesdays and Thursdays during the spring and summer. Even though there are a number of other sports in action, he is crunching golf stats on those days with the intention of then allocating half of his weekly bankroll to in-game golf bets. 

Hoffman believes his association with golf allowed him to create a following that he then turned into a consulting business. He doesn’t believe that would have happened if he had positioned himself as a handicapper of a multitude of sports.

College baseball bettor Grissom believes in working hard and working smart.

“Time management has definitely played a big role in my sports betting habits,” said Grissom. “I’ve found a pretty good balance as well as built a team around me that can help me maintain success throughout the season. 

“For instance, in college baseball, I spend roughly 80-100 hours in the preseason prepping for the upcoming season. This helps me with the development of our website. I can utilize the projection tools, see all of the advanced stats and trends, and adjust my team ratings as the season progresses. Simply put, overload yourself with preparation and adjust accordingly, instead of overloading each week and getting burned out and overextending yourself.”

Once the College World Series ends in early summer, Grissom takes some time off — then gets back to work by diving into college football and focusing more attention on CollegeFootballInsiders.com.

Grissom adds that he tracks all his bets and encourages others to do likewise so they can better understand their biases, habits, and results. He maintains his betting portfolio consistently at 40% college baseball, 40% college football, 10% college basketball, and 10% NFL, PGA, and MLB. 

Know thyself 

While those who bet in a sportsbook or on a casino floor know very well the importance of self-discipline, the handicappers we talked to said there are now even more variables that can take anyone off track in the corporatized gaming world. 

“Yeah there are certainly a lot of different things you can bet on these days, and it can be overwhelming, so I stick mostly to golf, the market I’ve had success in. I don’t feel the need to branch into newer markets,” Hoffman said.

Even though he likes action, lacrosse handicapper Jackson stays in control when it comes to betting on college football, the NFL, and NHL, all of which he enjoys as a fan. 

“As contradictory as it sounds, I’m actually quite risk-averse and don’t like betting on things I don’t know about or have a perceived edge on,” said Jackson. “I still like to place fun bets here and there, but usually only do when I know a trusted expert in that sport.” 

College baseball has taken on increased media coverage since sports betting legalization outside Nevada began. The board that Grissom first started scrutinizing has grown exponentially, but that doesn’t mean his betting habits have. 

“I’ve noticed in college baseball, in the past you’d be lucky to get regular season games, now books are offering midweek games and player props in the postseason,” said Grissom. “While I’ve dabbled in those markets, I keep my betting emphasis on the series matchups each weekend. At the end of the day, more options don’t always equal more ways to make money, so I like to keep it simple.”

Maintaining control and not being diverted by all the options also needs to extend to the casino floor, according to Grissom. If not, all that time spent grinding on a select few sports can quickly be wasted. 

“I always allocate a certain amount for sports betting and a certain amount for table games,” Grissom said. “I love playing blackjack and craps, but I’m most likely going to be more profitable if I stick to sports betting, because I trust the process of my handicapping and preparation far more than getting on a hot streak at a table.”

Stone, too, loves anchoring down at a blackjack table, but he hasn’t played a hand in nearly 15 years.  He carries his sports betting principles over to the casino floor.

“I used to play a lot of single-deck and double-deck blackjack years ago, but those games have largely disappeared, and more importantly, the rules have changed to the player’s disadvantage. So today, I never play any casino games.”

Playing the numbers 

Jackson said the handicappers who have the most success look to develop an expertise in just one to three sports.

That’s a number echoed by Stone. 

“If you’re going to bet for fun, and try not to lose a certain amount of money each month, then you can bet on a lot of different sports,” Stone said. “But if you’re looking to make a profit, you really shouldn’t bet more than three different sports.” 

Part of that discipline for Stone is — as Grissom also mentioned — the importance he places on tracking each bet, understanding strengths and weaknesses, and trying to determine which conferences he excels in betting most. He wouldn’t be able to do all this with an expanded sports betting portfolio. 

While these handicappers feel playing the niche parts of the betting board has helped them financially, it also has a downside. As part of a small community of lacrosse bettors, Jackson is playing into a board that receives little action, and he’s successful, so he regularly faces limits on wagers.

“It is going to be hard to pay the bills playing just small market sports,” said Stone. “You’ll be kicked out quickly if the books identify you as someone as an expert there.”